For two years now, we have collectively gorged on tales of tears and deeds of downfall. If the bulls really are back and the economic and financial misery is about to end, here are 16 reasons why we will miss the gloomy times.

1. Role-play will be a lot less pleasurable. We have split the world into two pantomimic parts: the evil (the bankers) and the good (everyone else). In future, sorting out villains and victims will require more imagination.

2. The crisis has favoured inexpensive, socially constructive pastimes such as bird-watching, book-reading and communal needlework. More aggressiveactivities will soon be on the rise again.

3. The prophets of doom have had a field day. Yet we feel strangely comfortable with the Cassandras. We have enjoyed being told that the light at the end of the tunnel signals an approaching train. Now we will have to get re-acquainted with the optimists – a much more dangerous and unsettling bunch of people.

4. During the recession we profited from empty planes, hotels, restaurants and buses. When recovery comes we will have excess demand again. The good life, when it returns, will be a lot more crowded.

5. Prices have been falling. Is that not what everyone always wanted? Now everything – from apples to yachts – will be going up again. And won’t we now all start suffering from the Great Inflation? What would you rather have: Austerity Britain or Weimar Germany?

6. The central banks have become the people’s friends, with even the European Central Bank cutting interest rates. Not long from now, rates will be rising again. Goodbye to bargain-basement banks, dirt-cheap consumer credit and rock-bottom mortgages.

7. Many high street stores selling goods that no one wanted to buy have closed, prompting art galleries and other edifying enterprises to move in to the vacant sites. Alas, all these shops peddling tawdry knick-knacks will be back with us again.

8. People have started to eat less. Obesity has been on the decline. There has been a boom in home-grown vegetables. Once the economy starts to grow again, the nation’s health will plummet.

9. Dinner party talk of house price rises will return. People will no longer be ashamed of being estate agents. Sons and daughters will again want to go into investment banking rather than eco-farming.

10. We will have to get used to a new, painful jargon. “Quantitative easing” was bad enough. The vocabulary of recovery is still less elegant. Prepare for the central banks selling their enormous holdings of government bonds to drive up interest rates. Practise saying “quantitative firming”.

11. Service blossoms in a downturn. Waiters wait, usherettes usher, doormen open doors. GDP growth = general grumpiness.

12. It is good to have scapegoats. We have been delighted to blame the mess on George W. Bush, the former US president, and Gordon Brown, the UK prime minister. Now President Barack Obama will take all the credit for the upswing. He may become slightly smug. The upshot: anti-Americanism will surge.

13. Energy use will rise again. With a good strong depression under way, we thought we had global warming licked. Not so! We will have to endure a new and mighty role for Opec and the sprouting up everywhere of new nuclear power stations.

14. Reining in the Russians will be more difficult when the oil price starts to push through $100 a barrel. So it will be scowls, not smiles, from President Dmitry Medvedev. And let’s not even think of how the Iranians will start to behave.

15. The bane of the 21st century – current account imbalances – has been coming nicely under control. Now all this will be out of control again. The dollar will plummet. Worse news, the foreign exchange dealers will run out of other currencies to sell it against.

16. China will really start to throw its weight around when its export motor goes back into overdrive. Mandarin will be the new official language of the European Union. Forget the SDR. The central bankers’ new official currency: the renminbi.

Once everything gets back to normal, we will soon begin to discern the green shoots of a new crisis. And it will be a lot worse than the 2007-09 version. Happy times!

這一年多以來(lái)，我們經(jīng)歷了太多血淚，目睹了太多的失敗。但是當(dāng)有一天形勢(shì)回暖，所有的經(jīng)濟(jì)金融慘劇都落下帷幕時(shí)，我們也許會(huì)想念這段沉抑的時(shí)光，因?yàn)橐韵逻@16點(diǎn)理由。

1.角色扮演將不會(huì)那么有意思了。現(xiàn)在我們把整個(gè)世界上的人分成了兩種角色：壞蛋（銀行家們）和好人（所有其他的人）。以后，區(qū)分壞蛋和受害者將需要更多的想象力。

2.危機(jī)繁榮了那些廉價(jià)的，有利于人與人之間交流的消遣活動(dòng)，比如說(shuō)賞鳥，閱讀，甚至是聚在一起干針線活。經(jīng)濟(jì)回暖之后，那些粗野的活動(dòng)又將卷土重來(lái)了。

3.那些悲觀派的預(yù)言家著實(shí)忙活了一陣。然而奇怪的是我們居然對(duì)這些唱衰者不那么反感了。就算他們告訴我們，隧道那邊那微弱的光亮不是希望，而是一輛要把我們碾碎的列車，我們也能夠接受。那些樂觀預(yù)言者反而越來(lái)越不受歡迎了，事實(shí)證明他們其實(shí)是一群更危險(xiǎn)，更使人不安的人

4.在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的時(shí)候，我們可以享受空得仿佛是專門為你而開的飛機(jī)，酒店，飯館和公車。復(fù)蘇來(lái)臨時(shí)，這一切又將被過度需求所填滿。在所謂的繁榮時(shí)期，到處都是擁擠的。

5.由于危機(jī)，物價(jià)下降了！這難道不是所有人夢(mèng)寐以求的嗎？現(xiàn)在，所有的東西，不管是蘋果還是游艇，都將漸漸漲價(jià)。難道我們現(xiàn)在又要開始受通貨膨脹的折磨了嗎？二戰(zhàn)后的百?gòu)U待興的英國(guó)，還是魏瑪政府時(shí)期的物價(jià)飛漲的德國(guó)？

6.央行成為了人們的好朋友，因?yàn)樯踔翚W洲中央銀行都為了緩解危機(jī)而降息。很快，利率又將再次上揚(yáng)。和像商場(chǎng)特價(jià)部一樣的銀行和銀行里那些超便宜的消費(fèi)品信用貸款，抵押貸款說(shuō)永別吧~~

7.許多大街旁的店鋪都因?yàn)闆]人來(lái)買東西而關(guān)閉了，這使畫廊等一些有教育意義的事業(yè)得以搬進(jìn)這些空出來(lái)了的門面。唉……危機(jī)后，喧嘩著兜售那些俗艷之物的攤位又會(huì)回來(lái)煩我們的。

8.人們開始注意食量了。肥胖癥人數(shù)正在減少。越來(lái)越多人開始在自家種植蔬菜。一旦經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，我們國(guó)民的健康將會(huì)經(jīng)歷大滑坡。

9.危機(jī)以后，人們又會(huì)在宴會(huì)上喋喋不休的談?wù)搩r(jià)格上漲了。沒有人會(huì)羞于承認(rèn)自己是房產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人。孩子們又會(huì)想要學(xué)習(xí)投資銀行學(xué)而不是生態(tài)農(nóng)業(yè)學(xué)了。

10.我們將不得不適應(yīng)一些專業(yè)詞匯。“量化寬松”這個(gè)詞已經(jīng)夠煩人的了，關(guān)于復(fù)蘇的詞匯卻會(huì)更加別扭。小心，央行又要出售大量的政府債券去拉高利率了。練習(xí)一下說(shuō)“量化穩(wěn)健”吧！

11.服務(wù)行業(yè)的服務(wù)水平在危機(jī)中有了長(zhǎng)足的提高，不論是服務(wù)員，領(lǐng)座員還是門童都是如此。這說(shuō)明：GDP增長(zhǎng)=人們脾氣變壞。

12.找個(gè)替罪羊是個(gè)很好的心理安慰方法。我們總是把當(dāng)前的混亂局面歸功于美國(guó)前總統(tǒng)布什和英國(guó)首相布朗。經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的功勞將被新上任的奧巴馬總統(tǒng)全權(quán)領(lǐng)受。他可能會(huì)因此變得有點(diǎn)得意自滿。這樣的結(jié)果就是：反美情緒又會(huì)高漲。

13.能源的使用又將增加。在當(dāng)下大蕭條的背景下，我們認(rèn)為我們已經(jīng)解決了氣候變暖的問題。其實(shí)不是這樣的！危機(jī)過后，我們還將要忍受Opec的強(qiáng)勢(shì)和到處都是的新核電站。

14.俄羅斯會(huì)變得越來(lái)越難控制，因?yàn)橛蛢r(jià)將要升過100美元一桶了。我們要做好準(zhǔn)備看梅德韋杰夫總統(tǒng)的臉色了，他將不會(huì)再對(duì)我們笑臉相迎。伊朗人們會(huì)怎么表現(xiàn)更是不可想象。

15.21世紀(jì)世界最大的隱患就是各國(guó)的經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目不平衡。我們一直以來(lái)都很好的控制了它，但是現(xiàn)在形勢(shì)有失控的趨勢(shì)。美元會(huì)大幅度貶值。更壞的是，外國(guó)的外匯炒家到那時(shí)會(huì)瘋狂的拋出其他貨幣買進(jìn)美元，以至于其他貨幣都不夠用了。

16.當(dāng)中國(guó)的出口發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)又開始運(yùn)作時(shí)，中國(guó)將發(fā)揮它在世界各方面的影響力了。普通話會(huì)變成歐盟新的官方語(yǔ)言。忘記什么SDR(特別提款權(quán))吧，人民幣將成為各國(guó)央行的新的官方貨幣。

即使一切恢復(fù)正常，我們也將很快發(fā)現(xiàn)一場(chǎng)新的危機(jī)正在萌芽。新的危機(jī)將比這個(gè)2007-09版本“刺激”得多。好好享受吧！